A brief history of Iran-US relations, part 2: Ahmedinejad, nukes, and weapons

On February 27, my wife Lori and I were privileged to hear Juan Cole, the University of Michigan’s distinguished expert on Middle Eastern affairs, at a luncheon of the Iowa City Foreign Relations Council. It occured to me that notes from Prof. Cole’s brief lecture, with a few supporting resources, could provide a valuable structure for understanding the back-stories that make today’s crises add up.

Part 1 of this thread sketched Prof. Cole’s list of the foundational events of Iran-US relations during the 20th century. This post offers my notes from the remainder of the lecture, and Part 3 suggests an exit strategy from neighboring Iraq.

Quotation marks indicate quotes of Prof. Cole. Other comments contain links that serve as citations.

By all means, check out Prof. Cole’s Informed Comment: Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion for scholarly reflection on news events as they happen.

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2005: REFORMERS APPEAR IMPOTENT – HARDLINERS SURGE. As it became apparent that the reform movement was unable to make sweeping change (partly due to persistent resistance from the US), Iranians began to see it as impotent. [In a comment, (see below), a knowledgeable friend points out that the US President’s inclusion of Iran in his axis of evil comments – during a time of reform – unwittingly contributed to the downfall of the reform movement.] Hardliners closed it down, setting the stage for a resurgence of control by religious conservatives.

2005: AHMEDINEJAD ELECTED PRESIDENT. … A populist “dressed as a janitor,”…
Mahmoud Ahmedinejad is a “Bazaari” – yet is “well connected to the clerical elite.” He is “not well educated” for the position (his background is in civil engineering), nor is he well-traveled. He is an outspoken critic of the Bush Administration, vague on his opinion of the historicity of the Holocaust, an advocate of repressive religious restriction, and has been accused of election fraud, fascism, and terrorism.

October, 2005: “WIPED OFF THE MAP”? Western media reported that Ahmedinejad said, in a speech given in an anti-Zionism conference, that “Israel must be wiped off the map.” The statement was widely disseminated, and many assumed Ahmedinejad to advocate annihilation of Israel. For example, Canada‘s then Prime Minister Paul Martin said, “this threat to Israel’s existence, this call for genocide coupled with Iran’s obvious nuclear ambitions is a matter that the world cannot ignore.

But it now appears that Ahmedinejad was mistranslated. Juan Cole said, His statements were morally outrageous and historically ignorant, but he did not actually call for mass murder … or for the expulsion of the Israeli Jews to Europe. … Cole translates the Persian phrase as: “The Imam said that this regime occupying Jerusalem must [vanish from] the page of time …”

According to Cole, “Ahmadinejad did not say he was going to wipe Israel off the map because no such idiom exists in Persian” and “He did say he hoped its regime, i.e., a Jewish-Zionist state occupying Jerusalem, would collapse.” … A synopsis of Mr. Ahmadinejad’s speech on the Iranian Presidential website states: “He further expressed his firm belief that the new wave of confrontations generated in Palestine and the growing turmoil in the Islamic world would in no time wipe Israel away.” … The same idiom in his speech on December 13, 2006 was translated as “wipe out”: “Just as the Soviet Union was wiped out and today does not exist, so will the Zionist regime soon be wiped out.” Obviously, he was not calling for a genocide on the no-longer-extant Soviet Union.

2006: NUCLEAR AMBITIONS. “Iran has not been proven to have a military nuclear program. Washington sees [Iran’s] civilian program as a threat. But you are allowed this under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.” Iran knows its oil could “possibly be gone in as little as twenty-five years.” Thus, Iran intends to use the oil revenue it has now to develop nuclear energy “so the US won’t have us ‘over a barrel’ when the oil runs out.”

2006: WEAPONS IN IRAQ. The militias that have weapons made in Iran are Shi’ite militias that are “allies of the US.” Cole saw this as a “jealous girlfriend story:” “the US doesn’t want to share influence.” These Iran-made weapons are rarely found in Sunni areas (such as Anbar Province), the source of most US casualties. Here Cole reminded us that former President Khatami tried twice to bring about cooperation with the US, offering (in 2003) “to help overthrow Saddam” and “recognize Israel.” The latter proposal “went to Rove and Cheney, who shot it down.”

SO, HOW DANGEROUS IS HE? Despite the fact that “American hardliners have used Ahmedinejad’s antics to ramp up” opposition to Iran, several conditions suggest that he is less of a threat than he appears. He “is not the commander-in-chief” of the armed forces and could not take Iran to war without the approval of the Supreme Leader, which is not likely to happen. “Khamanei [the reigning Supreme Leader] doesn’t like Ahmedinejad.”

AND HOW DANGEROUS IS IRAN? Historically, Iran has not been a bellicose state. “Iran has not invaded other countries since [at least as long ago as] the 19th century.”

ONE POST TO GO: PART 3 COMES FROM A Q&A THAT FOLLOWED COLE’S LECTURE, AND FOCUSES ON THE US OCCUPATION OF IRAQ AND A POSSIBLE EXIT STRATEGY (AND NOT ONE I’VE HEARD FROM ANYONE ELSE). SHOULD BE UP IN A FEW DAYS. THANKS FOR READING!

Related posts:

A brief history of Iran-US relations, part 1: Constitution to Khatami
A brief history of Iran-US relations, part 3:Understanding US withdrawal from Iraq
Take Care of Our Children
Think Muslims support terror? Check this out.
Roosevelt on criticizing the President
America’s Most Decorated Marine Speaks on War
Iran, the weapons, and how the US gets into wars
Time to pay up

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